Expanding bycatch estimates

#library(devtools)
#devtools::install_github("ericward-noaa/bycatch")
library(bycatch)
set.seed(123)

Load data

For our dummy dataaset, the expansionRate column contains the expansion rate. In other words, the number of total sets is the sets divided by expansion rate.

# replace this with your own data frame
d = data.frame("Year"= 2002:2014, 
  "Takes" = c(0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 3, 0, 0, 0),
  "expansionRate" = c(24, 22, 14, 32, 28, 25, 30,  7, 26, 21, 22, 23, 27),
  "Sets" = c(391, 340, 330, 660, 470, 500, 330, 287, 756, 673, 532, 351, 486))

Simple model with constant bycatch, no covariates

We’ll start by fitting a model with constant bycatch rate,

fit = fit_bycatch(Takes ~ 1, data=d, time="Year", effort="Sets", family="poisson",
  time_varying = FALSE)

By default the model assumes coverage is 100%, and no expansion is done. But to do the expansion, we can include the expansion_rate argument,

fit = fit_bycatch(Takes ~ 1, data=d, time="Year", effort="Sets", family="poisson",
  time_varying = FALSE, expansion_rate = "expansionRate")

And we can then plot these estimates. Like the previous function we can specify whether to include the raw points or not. First, we’ll show estimates of total bycatch (observed + unobserved)

plot_expanded(fitted_model=fit, xlab="Year", ylab = "Fleet-level bycatch", include_points = TRUE)

Alternatively, we may be interested in just summarizing the unobserved estimates. In this case, we can set the parameter show_total = FALSE.

plot_expanded(fitted_model=fit, xlab="Year", ylab = "Unobserved bycatch", include_points = TRUE,show_total = FALSE)

Make table of expanded bycatch estimates

We can also do things like summarize the expanded estimates in table form. This takes use of the get_expanded helper function,

expanded = get_expanded(fit)

df = data.frame("time" = d[,"Year"], 
  "mean" = apply(expanded, 2, mean),
  "median" = apply(expanded, 2, quantile, 0.5),
  "lower95" = apply(expanded, 2, quantile, 0.025),
  "upper95" = apply(expanded, 2, quantile, 0.975))

We could do all kinds of things with this kind of table, like output it to a .csv,

write.table(df, "estimated_bycatch.csv", row.names=F, col.names=T, sep=",")

Derived quantities

Or calculate the probability of getting values > 0, by year

pr_zero = function(x) {
  return(length(which(x==0))/length(x))
}

pr_pos = 1 - apply(expanded,2, pr_zero)
print(pr_pos)

##  [1] 0.5940000 0.5586667 0.7186667 0.6126667 0.5606667 0.6386667 0.4220000
##  [8] 0.8866667 0.7300000 0.7880000 0.6893333 0.5380000 0.5800000

Make table of total bycatch estimates

Like the get_expanded helper function, we have a get_total helper function to summarize the total observed + expanded unobserved bycatch. This function also takes a fitted model object,

total = get_total(fit)

df = data.frame("time" = d[,"Year"], 
  "mean" = apply(total, 2, mean),
  "median" = apply(total, 2, quantile, 0.5),
  "lower95" = apply(total, 2, quantile, 0.025),
  "upper95" = apply(total, 2, quantile, 0.975))

Expanding bycatch estimates

Eric J. Ward, Jason E. Jannot

2023-07-05

Load data

Simple model with constant bycatch, no covariates