Jekyll2026-01-22T15:14:34-08:00https://ericward-noaa.github.io/feed.xmlEric J. WardStatistician, Northwest Fisheries Science CenterEric J. Warderic.ward@noaa.govNCEAS profile2018-04-13T00:00:00-07:002018-04-13T00:00:00-07:00https://ericward-noaa.github.io/posts/2018/04/blog-post-7I was recently flattered to have NCEAS profile me as part of our synthesis work related to the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill here.

]]>Eric J. Warderic.ward@noaa.govDeclining size of Chinook salmon2018-03-15T00:00:00-07:002018-03-15T00:00:00-07:00https://ericward-noaa.github.io/posts/2018/03/blog-post-6New paper on declining Chinook size and age:

Jan Ohlberger recently led this cool paper on long term declines in the size at age of Chinook salmon, paper here. We found that both hatchery and wild Chinook are becoming both smaller and younger, with many of the oldest age fish disappearing from most of the coast. At the same time, size at age of some of the smallest fish (e.g. age 2 Chinook) has increased. Mechanisms that may be responsible for these changes include environmental change, fishing practices, hatchery releases, and predation.

Here’s a roundup of some great coverage:

University of Washington here
Seattle Times here
UW Daily here
KUOW here
Daily Astorian here
King 5 here

]]>Eric J. Warderic.ward@noaa.govDetecting effects of commercial fishing on marine species2015-08-13T00:00:00-07:002015-08-13T00:00:00-07:00https://ericward-noaa.github.io/posts/2015/08/blog-post-5This spatiotemporal modelling paper, led by Kotaro Ono (post-doc, AFSC) is just out in Ecological Applications. Using spatial species distribution models, we combined several NOAA groundfish trawl surveys with spatiotemporal data on fishing catch and effort, to ask whether we could detect effects of fishing on Dover sole density. Get the paper here.

]]>Eric J. Warderic.ward@noaa.govConservation challenges of recovering top predators2015-06-04T00:00:00-07:002015-06-04T00:00:00-07:00https://ericward-noaa.github.io/posts/2015/06/blog-post-4Predators are critical components of ecosystems, and provide numerous ecological, economic, and social benefits. Many of the predator populations that have recovered in the US (and worldwide) after receiving protection (Endangered Species Act, Marine Mammal Protection Act) can be seen as conservation success stories. These recoveries may introduce new management challenges, however. In a new paper out today, we use well known examples from 2 very different ecosystems (Northeast Pacific Ocean, Yellowstone) to highlight 3 emerging challenges:

  1. Top predators versus human use (such as hunting, or fishing)

  2. Management challenges of recovering top predators whose prey is also protected

  3. Challenges of predator recovery when multiple top predators compete for the same prey

For all of these challenges, we recommend the use of multi-species or ecosystem based models to explore tradeoffs and examine alternative ecosystem configurations. Our case studies highlight examples in the US, but similar examples exist in many terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems around the world.

Media coverage:

NWFSC press release here

Science Daily here

Wisconsin State Journal here

Mongabay writeup here

The full link to the paper is: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/conl.12186/epdf

]]>Eric J. Warderic.ward@noaa.govWhat causes salmon to stray?2015-04-17T00:00:00-07:002015-04-17T00:00:00-07:00https://ericward-noaa.github.io/posts/2015/04/blog-post-3Most salmon return to spawn as adults in the same streams they were born in — but some don’t. Salmon that spawn elsewhere are said to have ‘strayed’ and the exact reasons for why salmon stray is often a mystery. Understanding the reasons are important though, because the straying between otherwise independent populations can have synchronizing effects, and affect future population viability. Some recent work I helped with led by Peter Westley at UAF investigated multiple climate and human hypotheses for why Chinook salmon from the Columbia River stray. Using long term data from 19 populations, we found that warmer temperatures and smaller population sizes may be good predictors of salmon straying.

A link to the paper in Ecology is here, and a press release from UAF is here.

]]>Eric J. Warderic.ward@noaa.govEulachon and hotspots2015-04-17T00:00:00-07:002015-04-17T00:00:00-07:00https://ericward-noaa.github.io/posts/2015/04/blog-post-2As part of a collaboration with some modelers and researchers from the observer program at NOAA, we just had a new paper come out in Ecological Applications. Using two independent datasets, we were able to verify common patterns in both – that populations of eulachon off the west coast of Oregon and Washington appear to be increasing. Further, we were also able to identify some areas of increased presence — areas off La Push, and Coos Bay for example, have consistently higher than average abundance. Link to paper here, and a recent writeup of some great eulachon bycatch work is in the NY Times here.

]]>Eric J. Warderic.ward@noaa.govKiller whale baby boom2015-03-06T00:00:00-08:002015-03-06T00:00:00-08:00https://ericward-noaa.github.io/posts/2015/03/blog-post-1I was invited to speak at the Pacific Whale Watch Association symposium this week in Anacortes, and gave a talk on current NOAA research on killer whales and salmon. Jeff Burnside (KOMO) was there and interviewed me for a bit for their news story. Clip here.

]]>Eric J. Warderic.ward@noaa.gov